The last two winners of the Champions League must now fight to qualify for the last 16 of the 2024-25 edition, with Manchester City vs Real Madrid clashing in Tuesday’s crucial first leg at the Etihad.
While Real Madrid, the reigning champions of Europe, were just one point away from securing a top-eight spot, City had to mount a fightback on matchday eight to avoid an embarrassing early exit.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Match Preview
In stark contrast to the unbeatable European team that went 22 games unbeaten in the Champions League from September 2022 to April 2024, Pep Guardiola’s champions, struggling for form, faced the very real threat of early elimination this season.
City only won two of their first seven Champions League matches, and on the final matchday, Belgian side Club Brugge came close to causing a huge upset at the Etihad. However, a 3-1 comeback victory ensured City’s place in the top-24 positions.
Since narrowly surviving in Europe, the Sky Blues have continued to disappoint; after their heavy 5-1 defeat by Arsenal in the Premier League, Guardiola’s team only managed a narrow 2-1 FA Cup win against Leyton Orient, a third-tier club, on Saturday.
Still, recent results offer some hope for the City fans. Their cup victory marked their seventh win in their last 10 matches, and City have now scored in 13 consecutive games.
Additionally, City have been strong at home in 2025, winning against Chelsea, Club Brugge, Salford City, and West Ham, scoring at least three goals in each match. The hosts could now win five straight home matches across all competitions for the first time since 2023.
Real Madrid, too, have seen their European form dip after securing their record-extending 15th Champions League title at Wembley last year. Their customary knockout stage spot was under threat following three defeats in their first five group-stage games.
However, Carlo Ancelotti’s experienced squad bounced back, defeating Atalanta BC, Red Bull Salzburg, and Brest in their final three matches to finish just one point behind the top eight. Despite this, not securing a direct spot in the last 16 was a disappointing outcome for the defending champions.
Since their 3-0 win over Brest in their last Champions League match, Real Madrid’s domestic results have been inconsistent. They’ve managed one win, one draw, and one defeat in the Copa del Rey and La Liga. Their recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on Saturday saw a controversial penalty for Julian Alvarez and a Kylian Mbappe equaliser. Although Ancelotti’s men dominated in the second half, they couldn’t convert their chances, with goalkeeper Jan Oblak and their own miss chances to blame.
Despite this, the point was enough to keep Real Madrid at the top of La Liga, and now they prepare to face Manchester City for the fourth consecutive Champions League season, recalling their success last year when they eliminated City on penalties.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Head to Head
Pep Guardiola faced early challenges against Ancelotti’s Real Madrid during his time at Bayern Munich, losing both encounters. However, since becoming Manchester City’s manager, he has only lost twice in nine meetings with the Italian coach across all competitions (W6, D1, L2).
In Champions League knockout ties, Ancelotti has had the upper hand, eliminating Guardiola three times—in 2013-14, 2021-22, and 2023-24. This marks the fourth consecutive season that Madrid and City will meet in the knockout stages of the competition.
Real Madrid come into this match in strong form, having won their last three Champions League games and scoring 11 goals in the process.
On the other hand, City have struggled in Europe, managing only one win in their last five matches (D1, L3) since their 5-0 win over Sparta Prague in October.
That was also the last time City kept a clean sheet in the competition, with Guardiola’s side conceding 14 goals in their last five Champions League matches.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Team News
Manchester City’s new signing, Nico Gonzalez, faced a disastrous debut on Saturday, being substituted in the first half of their FA Cup win after being knocked off the ball before Leyton Orient’s bizarre opening goal.
Pep Guardiola couldn’t immediately confirm the severity of Gonzalez’s injury, but he now joins Oscar Bobb (leg), Nathan Ake (muscle), Jeremy Doku (unspecified), and Ederson (unspecified) on the doubtful list, while Rodri (ACL) remains out long-term.
Kevin De Bruyne, who scored the winner on Saturday, is expected to return to the starting XI. The Belgian midfielder is aiming to make Champions League history, with his next goal or assist against Real Madrid marking his ninth in the competition, more than any other player.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, arrive in Manchester with a defensive crisis. Lucas Vazquez has picked up a hamstring injury, joining Antonio Rudiger (thigh), Dani Carvajal (knee), Eder Militao (knee), and David Alaba (muscle) on the injury list.
Several key players are also at risk of suspension, with Jude Bellingham, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick, and Aurelien Tchouameni all one yellow card away from missing the second leg, as is Ancelotti himself.
Despite these concerns, Ancelotti is expected to field his strongest XI, with Tchouameni once again playing in an emergency centre-back role alongside the rising star Raul Asencio.
Manchester City Possible Starting Lineup:
- Ederson
- Nunes, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol
- Silva, Kovacic
- Foden, De Bruyne, Savinho
- Haaland
Real Madrid Possible Starting Lineup:
- Courtois
- Valverde, Tchouameni, Asencio, Mendy
- Camavinga, Modric
- Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior
- Mbappe
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction
The less said about Manchester City’s performance at Leyton Orient, the better. However, Pep Guardiola made numerous changes, and the English champions have recently found their rhythm in front of goal, as well as in securing victories, especially at the Etihad.
City’s attacking power at home could spell trouble for Real Madrid and their weakened defence. But Ancelotti’s side never gives up in Europe, and we anticipate the holders will return home feeling more satisfied after a thrilling first-leg draw. Prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Real Madrid.
