The clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid has become one of the defining rivalries in the UEFA Champions League in recent years. The two teams have been drawn against each other in the early knockout stages under the new competition format, marking their fifth meeting in the knockout rounds over the past six seasons.
In the last nine years, the clubs have faced off five times in knockout ties, with Madrid emerging victorious on all but one occasion—the 2022-23 semifinal, where Manchester City triumphed en route to their first Champions League title and a historic treble.
Last season, however, Carlo Ancelotti’s Madrid ended Pep Guardiola’s dream of retaining the title, defeating City on penalties in the quarterfinals at the Etihad Stadium. Madrid went on to win the tournament, defeating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in the final.
This early-stage showdown between two European giants is not what UEFA envisioned when revamping the competition format this year. However, both Manchester City and Madrid have paid the price for their underwhelming performances in Europe this season.
Real Madrid Holds the Key to Exploiting Manchester City’s Weaknesses
Manchester City’s current form has been shaky, particularly against top teams over the past three months—with the exception of their recent match against Chelsea, where they ruthlessly exploited the spaces left behind by the London club’s high press.
However, Madrid is a completely different challenge compared to Chelsea. Los Blancos are likely to cede possession to City and focus on hitting them on the counterattack—a strategy that has worked well for Ancelotti against Guardiola in the past.
| Team | Total Counterattacks | Shots from Counterattacks | Goals from Counterattacks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 56 | 42 | 15 |
| Liverpool | 78 | 68 | 15 |
| Real Madrid | 54 | 46 | 12 |
This season, Real Madrid ranks third among all European teams in goals scored from quick counterattacks (12 goals), trailing only Liverpool and Tottenham (15 goals each). With the pace and quality of attackers like Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé, Madrid can inflict significant damage on a City defense that has struggled against counterattacks all season, especially in the absence of Rodri, who is crucial in breaking up opposition plays.
Manchester City’s aging midfield and lack of a true defensive midfielder to shield the backline could prove costly. The speed of Vinícius and Mbappé will be decisive, particularly as Guardiola’s defense has shown vulnerability in one-on-one situations, as seen in matches against Paris Saint-Germain’s Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé.
Guardiola will hope to have several injured players back in time for the first leg in about ten days. Additionally, Manchester City can register three new players for the match, though Omar Marmoush is the only one likely to feature.
